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Financial Modelling London

Online support for London businesses. A useful model lets you change one business assumption and see the consequences.

01FP&A
02Business plans
03Cash flow

How the service works

Explore specialist support

A useful model lets you change one business assumption and see the consequences. For a London studio, that might be a delay in a major project. For a retailer, it might be a larger stock order before peak season. We build forecasts around the decisions you need to make, using a structure that your team can update when orders, payment dates or staffing plans change.

Choosing the right forecasting horizon

A short-term cash forecast usually needs more detail about actual receipt and payment dates than an annual budget. Payroll and rent can be tied to specific weeks while customer payments may require a range of assumptions. A longer planning model can focus on monthly sales drivers, capacity and margins. We agree the horizon and level of detail before building, so the effort spent maintaining the forecast is proportionate to the decision.

Building revenue from operational drivers

An annual growth percentage may be convenient, but it can conceal a capacity problem. A consultancy forecast can start with available people, billable days, expected utilisation and realised day rates. A subscription business might start with customers, additions, cancellations and average spend. Using these drivers makes it possible to test a specific concern. If utilisation falls, you can see the effect separately from a reduction in price.

Connecting profit to cash

A profitable month can absorb cash when customers pay slowly or stock is purchased ahead of demand. An integrated model connects the profit and loss account to working capital and the cash balance. We look at deposits, invoice timing, supplier terms and planned investment. Showing the bridge between profit and cash helps directors understand why the funding requirement changes even when the sales forecast stays the same.

Building checks into a model

A forecast can look polished while containing a broken link between periods. Agree a small set of visible checks. Opening cash should equal the previous closing figure. The balance sheet should balance. A new employee’s cost should appear from the intended start date. A loan repayment should reduce borrowing as well as cash. Use a simple known case to test each change before relying on a complex scenario. A model that exposes a failed check is easier to maintain than one that quietly produces a plausible answer.

Separating committed and potential sales

A signed contract with a defined delivery date deserves different treatment from an early sales opportunity. Group revenue assumptions by the evidence supporting them and decide who can change each status. A weighted pipeline can be useful at portfolio level, but a small business reliant on one large deal may need a separate win and loss case. Half the value of a contract that is either won or lost may describe neither realistic outcome. Showing the alternatives makes the funding need more intelligible.

What’s included

  • FP&A
  • Business plans
  • Cash flow
Forecasting & financial modelling
By quotation
Scope and fee agreed before work begins.
  • Agreed deliverables
  • Named contact
  • Review together
Discuss your requirements
All services

What you receive

We work with you online. Each stage produces a record you can check, share with your team and use at the next review.

01RECORDS

Business plan services

Begin with the decision the plan must support. A lender will want to understand repayment capacity. An owner opening a second location needs to know how much cash is committed before the first sale. We build the financial narrative from those questions and identify where supporting evidence is still needed.

Revenue assumptions
02REVIEW

Financial forecasting services

We reconcile opening cash, distinguish committed receipts from pipeline and schedule the payments that matter. For near-term liquidity we can use weekly dates. For annual planning we focus on monthly capacity, margins and working capital. The forecast records the owner and evidence behind each major input.

Rolling cash forecast

How we work together

1

Agree the brief

Identify the decisions and records that matter.

2

Prepare the work

Gather the figures and review the assumptions.

3

Review together

Discuss the findings and agree next steps.

UKBusiness finance

A thirteen-week cash forecast in practice

Suppose a London wholesaler has £50,000 available and expects a £30,000 customer payment in week four. A stock deposit is due in week five. In the base case, the deposit clears with room to spare. Move the receipt into week seven and the weekly balance may fall below the amount needed for wages even though the quarter still ends with positive cash. The model should show the lowest point and the date it occurs. Management can then compare splitting the deposit, collecting part of the invoice earlier or delaying the order. The most useful scenario is the one that changes a real decision. Once an action is agreed, update the forecast with the revised dates and keep the original assumption available for comparison at the next review.

Designing a downside case

Start with a credible change in operating conditions rather than reducing every line by the same percentage. A delayed contract may postpone revenue while staff costs continue. A supplier requesting an earlier deposit may affect cash without changing margin. We compare the size and timing of the shortfall, then test practical responses such as adjusting a hiring date or phasing investment. The comparison should reveal which response actually makes a difference.

Keeping a rolling forecast useful

At each update, replace the completed period with actual figures and reconcile opening cash to a known balance. Review the assumptions that moved and record why. A difference caused by payment timing should be treated differently from a customer cancelling an order. Keeping a brief change log helps managers understand the forecast revision and avoids lengthy debates over which version of the file was used last month.

What you receive at handover

We agree the scenarios, outputs and update process at the outset. The handover should show where inputs belong, how to check the results and which assumptions deserve the most attention. A model used for an internal hiring decision may need a concise dashboard. A model for a funding discussion may need a fuller explanation of trading assumptions and financing requirements. Tell us who will use it and what question they need it to answer.

Reading a budget variance

Suppose gross profit falls short of budget in a month when revenue is close to plan. The difference might come from discounts, a greater share of lower-margin work, overtime or a cost posted in the wrong period. Break the variance into drivers before carrying it into the forecast. A posting correction should not automatically lower the next six months of margin. A lasting change in the sales mix might. Recording the reason makes the forecast update more defensible and gives operations a specific issue to investigate.

Preparing a model for a funding conversation

A funding model should connect the amount requested to the uses of cash and the milestones it supports. Show the point of greatest cash pressure and explain how much flexibility remains if sales arrive later. Give the reader a short guide to the inputs and a reconciliation to recent actual results. Someone outside the business should be able to understand what would have to be true for the forecast to hold. That clarity also helps management identify which assumptions deserve closer monitoring after funding is secured.

What if a customer pays a month late?

Illustrative business question
01FP&A
02Business plans
03Cash flow

Common questions

Discuss your requirements

A budget sets the plan against which performance will be reviewed. A rolling forecast updates the expected outcome as trading changes. Keep the original budget visible even when its assumptions become outdated. Otherwise managers lose the ability to distinguish a change in expectations from a failure to execute the original plan. Presenting actual results, the original budget and the latest forecast together makes it easier to explain which differences are historical and which relate to the months ahead.

Look for assumptions with a large effect and limited supporting evidence. A small change in customer retention may matter more than a large change in a minor overhead. Similarly, a single project start date may dominate a small consultancy’s cash outlook. We can use a sensitivity table to vary a driver while holding others constant, then combine the important changes into coherent scenarios. This avoids overwhelming the team with dozens of cases that do not lead to different decisions.

Yes. A handover should identify the owner of each input and the sequence for updating it. Sales may own pipeline assumptions while operations confirms capacity and finance reconciles cash. Agree checks that flag an incomplete update, such as a closing balance that fails to match the opening figure in the next period. We also discuss what should trigger a structural review. Adding a new revenue stream may require model changes beyond simply entering a larger sales number.